Wanderlust

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  • How real is the threat of returning IS fighters?

    Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces stand guard on a rooftop in Raqqa after retaking the city from Islamic StateImage copyright Getty Images

    Driven out of their de facto capital of Raqqa after three brutal years, IS fighters have lost much of the territory they once held. How real is the danger they will now travel to other countries to carry out attacks, asks Dr Lorenzo Vidino.

    As the self-declared Islamic State steadily crumbles in Iraq and Syria, security officials throughout the world are asking themselves a crucial question: what will happen to its fighters?

    Roughly 30,000 foreign fighters joined IS and there is concern that these battle-hardened individuals will return home, or move elsewhere, carrying out terrorist attacks to avenge the demise of the “caliphate”.

    While difficult to forecast, the changing fortunes of IS will undoubtedly have major implications for global security.

    Over the border

    There are indications, including an assessment by US counter-terrorism officials, that some foreign fighters will stay in Syria and Iraq.

    Image copyright Getty Images

    While Turkish authorities have been patrolling with significantly more zeal than in the past, mountainous terrain and the presence of sophisticated smuggling networks mean the border is quite permeable.

    IS has a long-established support network throughout Turkey, which is playing a key role in extracting foreign fighters from Syria.

    Given the scores of attacks that have bloodied the country over the last three years, Turkish authorities are understandably concerned about this influx.

    Neighbouring countries, such as Jordan and Lebanon, have similar fears.

    From battlefield to battlefield

    The potential end destinations for foreign fighters leaving Syria and Iraq are plentiful.

    There is evidence that some have joined the official wilayat, or “provinces”, IS has established in Yemen, the Sinai Peninsula, the North Caucasus and East Asia.

    The group also has a strong presence in Libya, where the US suggested last year that it had up to 6,500 fighters, and several hundred in Afghanistan, where the US reported killing at least 94 fighters in an attack on underground tunnels.

    Image copyright Getty Images Image caption Marawi in the Philippines has been partly held by fighters linked to IS since May

    There are also anecdotal indications of militants travelling to conflicts in far flung places such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Myanmar and the Philippines.

    The arrival of foreign fighters to these regions could strengthen the capabilities of local jihadist groups and change the course of sometimes devastating conflicts.

    Vulnerable countries

    Many other foreign fighters are choosing to return to their countries of origin.

    While some returnees may no longer engage in militant activities, others are establishing clandestine networks seeking to carry out attacks and, according to local circumstances, destabilise the country’s political situation.

    North African countries are particularly vulnerable to the risk – nowhere more so than Tunisia, as about 6,000 of its citizens left to join IS – the highest per capita rate in the world.

    Arab Gulf countries may also suffer from this type of blowback.

    Russia, the Caucasus, and a number of Central Asian countries are also areas of concern, having seen large numbers join IS – many of whom went on to play a prominent role on the battlefield.

    The threat to Europe

    European authorities consider the return of some of the estimated 6,000 European foreign fighters a major security concern.

    To date, fewer than one in five individuals involved in attacks on the West since the “caliphate” was declared in 2014 had experience as foreign fighters, according to research by the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and the George Washington University’s Program on Extremism.

    Image copyright Getty Images Image caption The Paris attacks were carried out in part by former foreign fighters Who was behind the jihadist attacks on the West? Who are Britain’s jihadists? The archaeological treasures IS failed to destroy

    But this might change as the number of returnees – now estimated at roughly 1,000 – increases.

    Many may show no sign of wishing to engage in further violent activities, but there is a valid concern that some may make use of their combat skills.

    It is plausible that they could use their network of contacts and “celebrity status” among unaffiliated jihad enthusiasts to plan terrorist attacks.

    The territorial losses suffered by IS are not likely to affect the operational ability of these largely independent militants.

    A legal return

    While significant problems still exist, European authorities have improved intelligence sharing to better detect returning fighters.

    And thanks to improved co-operation with Turkey, many militants have been arrested before they get any further.

    A few do manage to reach Europe illegally, or by posing as refugees – as some of the November 2015 Paris attackers did.

    But most foreign fighters will come to Europe legally, often using their genuine European passports.

    If detecting them is a problem, working out what to do with them is equally fraught.

    Arresting them may be the obvious answer, but the reality is significantly more complicated.

    The UK Home Office, for example, disclosed last year that of the 400 British foreign fighters who had returned from Syria and Iraq, only 54 were convicted.

    Similar dynamics can be observed throughout the continent.

    Inside Raqqa after IS pushed out The city fit for no one Raqqa’s loss seals rapid rise and fall

    What is preventing authorities from arresting, prosecuting and convicting returning foreign fighters?

    It is mostly a legal matter, with lawmakers struggling to keep up with a constantly shifting threat environment.

    While legislations vary from country to country, they share some common problems.

    In some countries, joining a terrorist organisation or fighting in a foreign conflict were not criminal offences at the time when most individuals travelled to Syria.

    Several countries have since introduced new laws which, however, cannot be applied retrospectively.

    Even in countries where such actions have long constituted criminal offences, authorities struggle to gather the evidence needed to build a strong criminal case.

    Knowing that somebody joined IS or committed atrocities in Syria from an intelligence perspective is one thing.

    Being able to prove that beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law is another.

    Even more complicated is the issue of children either born or raised in the “caliphate” by their foreign fighter parents.

    While most are not punishable under the law, they deserve attention because of the trauma they have suffered and, in some cases, because they present severe signs of radicalism despite their young age.

    The result is that authorities are overwhelmed, having to monitor hundreds of battle-hardened fighters, on top of the burgeoning number of home-grown IS sympathisers, in an attempt to determine which pose an immediate security threat.

    Instead, authorities throughout Europe have increasingly invested in programmes seeking to deradicalise returning foreign fighters.

    While it might be premature to definitively assess them, there are indications that some, like the one established in the Danish city of Aarhus – offering rehabilitation and inclusion in society, are effective.

    Others, like the French plan to set up 12 deradicalisation centres, have been shelved.

    Looking to the future

    The loss of much of its territory is a major blow to ISIS.

    Yet the group and its adherents are already surfacing in various parts of the world and are likely to do so with even more frequency and vehemence in the near future.

    IS will become a more decentralised, amorphous organisation operating in a more asymmetric fashion, but it will not disappear.

    Moreover, the IS brand and the emotional appeal of its “caliphate” are unlikely to vanish any time soon.

    And, despite critical challenges, the organisation’s remarkably strong digital presence, the so-called “virtual caliphate”, will survive in some form, potentially rekindling the commitment of sympathisers worldwide and prompting some to carry out terrorist attacks in its name.

    The fall of the “caliphate” closes a chapter, but a new one is about to be opened.

    About this piece

    This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from an expert working for an outside organisation.

    Dr Lorenzo Vidino is the director of the Program on Extremism at the George Washington University and of the Program on Radicalisation and International Terrorism at the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) in Milan.

    Edited by Duncan Walker

  • How I was referred to as ‘boob girl’

    Life with a incapacity can from time to time supply upward thrust to unstated questions and sensitivities – but amid the awkwardness, there may also be humour. the following is an edited model of a sketch by Jessica Donohoe, who has spinal muscular atrophy, performed for the BBC on the Edinburgh Festival Fringe.

    Symbol copyright Sarah Dousse

    Other Folks do unusual things when there is a wheelchair involved. However they don’t seem to be at all times a quandary. actually, on occasion they may also be quite helpful in instances of need.

    I in order that occur to have a body that does not paintings to boot as the average Joe’s.

    I sit down a lot and my wheels “stand in” for my inoperable legs. this is now not all the way down to being lazy. i’ve a muscle-losing condition called spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), that’s genetic and probably way my oldsters are comparable.

    on account of a scarcity of muscle, my hands and legs are quite fatter than such a lot other people’s and really no longer much longer than a French fry.

    My head, funnily sufficient, is the one customary-dimension a part of my frame. I basically have a very an identical physique to that of Charlie Brown and the head control of a bobblehead – you ought to see me move within the car.

    I’m Not inspirational – unless there are freebies involved – and i have a greater likelihood of meeting some of the extra attention-grabbing characters in society.

    At The Same Time As I Was at school, my halls of place of dwelling had been simply off the busiest street in Manchester. With everything so close, the speculation of fixing out of pyjamas that might easily pass as real-existence clothing used to be on the very backside of my list.

    One common day, I set out to collect a chum from the station – in my bed-wear, because it was just 5 minutes clear of my house.

    But in a while into my experience, i started to receive more and more empathetic smiles.

    Storytelling Are Living: Going Out

    Jessica was considered one of six individuals with a incapacity or psychological sickness to perform a story about going out as part of BBC Ouch’s storytelling experience on the Edinburgh Pageant Fringe – hosted via Lost Voice Man.

    You’ll listen to the programme on BBC Radio 5 Live at 23:30 on Saturday, 25 August, and watch it on BBC Two at 23:30 on Friday, 31 August.

    Now, I’m Not averse to the odd stare and every time I’m out in public it is pretty much a make it possible for several people will make it completely obvious that they have got by no means observed a cool animated film-resembling determine in a wheelchair prior to.

    But on this particular day, the selection of other people eyeing me up had appreciably higher. I came to the realization that I Used To Be both:

    taking a look additional attractive taking a look additional disabled

    Unsurprisingly, it was once the latter, however now not for reasons it’s possible you’ll expect.

    As I passed a large team of homeless people who had set up camp underneath the dual carriageway bridge, it changed into obvious, with a unmarried vulgar remark hollered by way of one among the men, the place the surge in bizarre seems to be stemmed from.

    “Oh my God, her tit’s out!” he shouted.

    Obviously, he hadn’t got the “she’s obviously disabled and can’t be recommended” memo some other, polite, passerby had possibly noticed. He overlooked this unstated rule.

    A Lot to my horror, my entire boob had fallen out of the arm opening of my pyjama-vest. as a result of my crooked backbone, my hot-dog arm wasn’t fat enough to hide it nor robust enough to resolve my issue.

    I froze. Will Have To I flip back and flash myself to passing vehicles as a substitute?

    I took the chief determination to proceed onwards, in the desire i could manoeuvre close enough to homes to cover my nipple and rising embarrassment.

    Then, up in advance, i realized my worst fear – a highway crossing. It was once busy. As I approached, I puzzled if the street could ever develop into quiet enough to move with out being spotted. I waited – the traffic did not cease.

    As I built up the courage to peel myself away from the privateness of the wall to possibility the street, I Was approached by a girl. I had handed her in advance under the bridge. She did not appear the most hygienic and carried a host of cigarette leads to her hand.

    Symbol copyright Sarah Dousse

    Bearing in mind, pneumonia preys on SMA, colds are our kryptonite and new private assistants undergo lively sterilising training, I edged away as she got nearer. However she got here directly for me.

    “Babe, your tit is right out, am i able to… ?” i didn’t permit her end. For the primary time in my lifestyles, anti-bacterial gel was once not my first thought.

    She reached out, popped me back in and that i stay ceaselessly grateful.

    On my long ago, having accrued my boob-gate-oblivious loved one from the station, I temporarily came upon it’s lovely tricky to move undercover when you find yourself riding a hefty steel machine.

    I were given an overly enthusiastic wave from the opposite side of the road and a noisy elated shout of “That Is boob-girl!”

    i have avoided that particular bridge ever when you consider that.

    For extra Disability News, apply BBC Ouch on Twitter and Facebook, and subscribe to the weekly podcast.

    From Storytelling Are Living 2017, you may also additionally like to read:

    The nun who prayed and made me walk The masseuse who pulled my arm out What I want I hadn’t mentioned to my colleague

  • How the common-or-garden cabbage can stop cancers

    Cabbage Symbol copyright Getty Images

    Scientists say they have got discovered why some vegetables – together with cabbage, broccoli and kale – can reduce the risk of bowel cancers.

    That cruciferous veg is good for the intestine has never been in doubt however an in depth explanation has been elusive.

    The team on the Francis Crick Institute found anti-cancer chemicals have been produced because the greens have been digested.

    Cancer Analysis UNITED KINGDOM said there have been a number of purposes to consume extra veg.

    The paintings excited about how vegetables modify the liner of the intestines, by way of learning mice and miniature bowels rising within the lab.

    Indicators of bowel cancer come with power:

    blood in the stools changes in bowel conduct, corresponding to going to the bathroom extra often tummy pain, bloating or discomfort

    Dr Stockinger said the findings have been a “result in for optimism”.

    She has diminished the amount of meat she eats and now consumes a lot more vegetables.

    She advised the BBC: “SO MUCH of nutritional advice we’re getting adjustments periodically – it is very complicated and never transparent lower what the reasons and outcomes are.

    “Just telling me it is excellent for me without a explanation why will not make me eat it.

    “With this study, we have the molecular mechanisms approximately how the program works.”

    Prof Tim Key, from Most Cancers Analysis UNITED KINGDOM, mentioned: “This study in mice suggests that it’s not just the fibre contained in vegetables like broccoli and cabbage that help scale back the risk of bowel most cancers, but additionally molecules present in those greens too.

    “Additional research might help discover whether the molecules in these vegetables have the similar effect in people, but within the intervening time there are already plenty of excellent reasons to consume extra vegetables.”

    Observe James on Twitter.